Guesstimate
Guesstimate is a methodological process of guess and estimate. Guesstimates have now become an important part of
What does a person asking you questions as absurd as “How many people are wearing red today?” is looking
You know that he has no idea about the same but he has the power to select or reject your candidature. You will be judged entirely on the basis of your approach and the number of points which you can think of.
One and only one thing to keep in mind when you are solving a guesstimate question – You should start with a number and you have to be very very consistent with the same in the entire solution. And be very particular about your assumptions.
Let’s take an example:
What
Assumption 1 – Population of India is 1000 Million (though it’s 130
Assumption 2 – Population percentage below
and Population percentage of upper middle class 20%, whereas the rest 20% is the middle class. So there are 200 Million people who are financially eligible to buy an iPad.
Assumption 3 – Now take these 200
Rural – 20% = 40 Million
Urban – 80% = 160 Million
Let’s divide the Rural and Urban population on the basis of age:
Rural Total population = 40 Million
| Age | Population Percentage | Population (Number) | Percentage buying iPad | iPad Sold |
| 0-12 YO | 10% | 4M | 0% | 0M |
| 12- 20 YO | 30% | 12M | 30% | 3.6M |
| 20-40 YO | 30% | 12M | 40% | 4.8M |
| 40-60 YO | 10% | 4M | 10% | .4M |
| 60 + YO | 20% | 8M | 0% | 0M |
Total iPad sold in Rural area = 8.8 Million
| Age | Population Percentage | Population (Number) | Percentage buying iPad | iPad Sold |
| 0-12 YO | 10% | 16M | 0% | 0.0M |
| 12- 20 YO | 30% | 48M | 40% | 19.2M |
| 20-40 YO | 30% | 48M | 80% | 38.4M |
| 40-60 YO | 20% | 32M | 40% | 12.8M |
| 60 + YO | 10% | 16M | 20% | 3.2M |
Total iPad sold in the Urban area = 73.6 Million
Total iPad sold in India = 82.4 Million
This number might be very close or very off, but you took a couple of factors and successfully derived a number.
You can also take more factors like:-
1. Occupation – People working in Technical field are more inclined towards buying gadgets(Assumption)
2.
With every new factor, your calculation will increase in complexity. So, add factors only if you think you can manage the calculation.
It’s always better to arrive at a number after 15 minutes of discussion with limited factors than arriving nowhere after 1 hour of intense discussion with a lot of factors.
If you want to practice more, you can visit this link
XtraMous
