OLA interview Question | Population
Question
A test has a true positive rate of 100% and a false positive rate of 5%. There is a population with a 1/1000 rate of having the condition the test identifies. Considering a positive test, what is the probability of having that condition?
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Statistics
55 years
1 Answer
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Answer ( 1 )
Make a Bayesian Tree and compute the conditional probability that the test is positive given he actually has that ailment.
Probability required = P(actually positive|tested positive)
P(actually positive|tested positive) = (P(tested positive|Actually positive)*P(Actually Positive))/(P(tested postive))
=((1*0.001)/(0.001+0.999*0.005))
=2% OR 0.019
Please look into the tree if required.