Guesstimate 7 : How to estimate the number of ambulances on the road ?
Ans: Let’s start with the population of the country ~ 1.3 Billion (1300 million)
Rural – 70% = 900 million Urban 400 million
Let’s divide the Urban population into three groups based on income level – Low |High |Upper High
I would divide as : Low: 30% High - 50% Upper High - 20%
So Urban Low: 120 million High - 200 Upper High - 80 million
Now out of Urban Low I would assume 10% have driving as occupation (Rise of taxi services etc. (only considering 4 wheeler drivers))
= 12 million (120,00,000)
Out of these I would assume 1–1.5% are ambulance drivers = 120000
So we can say almost 1,20,000 ambulances are available in the country at any time.
Now generally ambulances are available on calling, that means, at least a half of them are always on backup. let’s assume that 70% of them are on idle at any given point of time.
Also since their average journey time is of 20–25 minutes, so we can say not more than 10% of ambulances would be on road at any time
So we can say 10% are on roads at any time = 12000 ambulances on road across Urban India.