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Guesstimate 2 – How many gmail users are there in India ?

Approach

The population of India is – 1,300,000,000 i.e. 1.3B
Internet penetration in India is – 30%

Assumed Population Distribution –

• 0-20 : 25%
• 21- 60 : 60%
• >60 : 15%

People of age between 0-20 using internet
= 0.25*390000000
= 97500000
~100,000,000

Similarly people of age between 21-60 and >60 using internet will be 230,000,000 and 60,000,000 respectively.

Assumption

People of age 0-20 usually do not need an email account. But we may consider 5% of them do have it.

Therefore email users of 0-20 age group = 0.05*100000000 = 5000000.

The major proportion of email users are the employed people. Since in India employment rate is 75% but not all of them need an email account.

We will assume 75% of employed people use an email account.

Therefore email users of age 20-60 = 0.75*0.75*230,000,000 = 130,000,000(approx.)

Out of 60,000,000 people aged above 60, 25% of them use an email account. So email users of this age group = 0.25* 60,000,000 = 15,000,000.

So total email users in India = 5000000 + 130000000 + 15000000 = 150,000,000.

Gmail is a free and most prominent email service provider. So the nearly 85% of email users use Gmail.

Therefore number of Gmail users in India
= 0.85*150000000
= 127,500,000.